Typhoon Ondoy

Hi guys,

Philippine government is underestimating the impact of typhoon Ketsana (locally known as typhoon Ondoy). The government estimated the cost of damage at P8.3 billion as of 4 October 11pm.

A. So what’s the story?

Economic cost should include not only the nominal, direct effects but also indirect losses, system losses (e.g. linkages), foregone revenues and opportunity costs. Not to mention the social impact.

I did a bit of calculations using official reports from NDCC, DepED, DA and statistical reports from various govt agencies and here’s my initial assessment. (Of course, the figures will go higher as official data unravels).

Total economic cost: no less than P14.9 billion (this does not include the losses incurred by the business sector. I am still waiting for the Phil Chamber of Commerce report). The breakdown:
1. Agri and Fisheries: P8.6 billion
2. Transportation: P3.1 billion (this includes the foregone revenues of civil aviation (passengers) at P358 million
3. Housing: P2.5 billion
4. Government sector (including educ infra and assistance): P284 million
5. Access Cost of Students (who were effectively displaced from their schools. these schools were converted into evacuation centers): P88 million. This could go up to P140 million.
6. Foregone revenues of the dead, present value: P290 million

In addition, no less than P1.06 billion YEARLY forgone revenues in agriculture for agri lands that are considered ‘no chance of recovery’.

These estimates are conservative and does not include other things: (i) destruction of durables and non-durable household items, foregone revenues of business establishments, actual damage in assets of business establishments, unaccounted donations, sea transport, actual medical expenses of the injured and future health/medical expenses to curb water-borne diseases, among others.

B. How about the response?

On average, there are 628 persons in one evacuation center. These individuals are those actually served/housed in evacuation centers. Some of these evacuation centers are public schools. But, if we take all of the individuals affected by Ondoy, the ratio is 7,571 persons in one evacuation center. That would be a multiple of 12 evacuation centers given the current average population of an evacuation center in the field. The figures, of course, varies by region. Central Luzon has 14,070 persons in one evacuation center while only 661 persons are actually housed in the center.

C. What about government assistance?

The total amount of government assistance (including those given by NGOs) is valued at P80.02 million (of which, P64.6 million constitutes as direct government assistance and P15.38 million is the assessed value of sacks of rice). Total number of affected individuals, to date: 3,899, 307. This translates to P20.52 per person. What can this buy? Well, one (1) kilo of NHA rice is P18.25 and maybe two (2) ice water at one peso each. But with looming uncertainties faced by those affected on how to go on with their daily lives, P20.52 is absolutely not sustaining.

But not all 3,899,307 people are actually served by the government. The government has actually served only 982,408, again, to date. This means: each served individual has received P81.45 pesos. That’s the value of social protection programme per person, for this type of catastrophic risk. And, that value, I am sure, will increase each day hence as support pours in. If we compare that, however, with properties and lives destroyed, well…..

D. So where do the rest of the affected get help from?

From kins, friends and social networks including Gabriela Women’s Party, the National Council of Churches of the Philippines, ABS-CBN Foundation-Gawad Kapamilya, Samahan ng Maralitang Kababaihang Nagkakaisa (Samakana), a Gabriela member organization, GMA Kapuso Foundation, DENR Secretary Lito Atienza, Art Gabon and other people and groups. They are proofs that support can come from what economists and sociologists call ‘informal arrangements’ (as opposed to ‘formal arrangements’ by the government and from international support). At times, catastrophic events like that havocked by Ondoy can wipe out a whole host of insurable material assets and the only asset left is friends, relatives and social networks. They act as social insurance which allows individuals to even out consumption during hard times. They are extremely valuable.

That’s all for now.

Assad

Article from The REAL cost of Ondoy (according to an economist)

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By Ishaan Tharoor

In Manila, millions of residents now live in a world of mud. Torrential rain over the weekend triggered the worst flooding the Philippines’ capital has seen in over four decades, submerging more than 80% of the city, killing at least 246 people and displacing hundreds of thousands more. By Tuesday, the water had receded in many places, but it left behind ruined homes and swept-away neighborhoods, and according to health officials, it disabled the majority of Manila’s medical facilities. Debris, sewage and abandoned vehicles that were tossed around by gushing currents now litter the notoriously polluted capital; aid workers warn of water-borne diseases. The government has placed the area around Manila under a “state of public calamity.”

In an appeal for assistance, Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo described Tropical Storm Ketsana, which hit Manila on Sept. 26, as a “once-in-a-lifetime typhoon.” A month’s worth of rain deluged the city in the space of 12 hours. “The system is overwhelmed, local government units are overwhelmed,” said Anthony Golez of the state’s National Disaster Coordinating Council at a press conference on Sept. 28. (See pictures of the storm.)

Yet many in the country are pointing fingers at its politicians for failing to predict the scale of the disaster or lessen the damage it caused. Manila, they say, was always bound to face such catastrophe, and more should have been done to help its millions of residents prepare. A recently published study by the Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSA), a research group based in Singapore, ranked metropolitan Manila as one of the provinces in Southeast Asia most vulnerable to flooding. The capital region is perched on a marshy isthmus that is crisscrossed with streams and rivers. An ever-growing population — Manila is now a sprawling mega-city of some 12 million people, larger still when factoring in the day-worker population — and the lack of infrastructure to accommodate it left swaths of the city exposed. “What we are seeing is a phenomenon that will affect many major cities in Asia,” says Neeraj Jain, country specialist for the Philippines at the Asian Development Bank (ADB), which is headquartered in Manila. “Urbanization has been so rapid, yet the planning processes have lagged.” (Read “Manila Through the Eyes of F. Sionil José.”)

Last weekend’s flood was in large part the result of the capital’s poor drainage and sanitation systems, which have been neglected by several successive administrations in power. As Ketsana rained down upon Manila, sewers that were clogged up by plastic bags and other refuse led to roads becoming rivers and gardens lagoons. Video images of desperate people riding floating pontoons of garbage down inundated streets were a sign not just of the consequences of the flood, but also its causes. Many impoverished Manila residents live in makeshift settlements by rivers and creeks — the source of their drinking water — that overflowed and carried off their homes. “People have always been living on the edge,” says Carlos Celdran, a popular Manila historian and performing artist. “It’s amazing the city has actually managed to make it this far.”

The Spanish seized Manila from its Muslim rulers in the 16th century and set it up as their colonial seat in Asia. The city was a flourishing, elegant entrepôt for centuries, but in recent times civic planning has been more haphazard as the population has boomed. Lambert Ramirez, executive director of the National Institute for Policy Studies, a Manila-based think tank, says much of the blame for poor urban management ought to be leveled at the government. “There’s no coordinated policy for cleaning up garbage. There’s no political will to get even simple things done,” he says. Ramirez spoke to TIME while salvaging appliances and valuables from his own flooded home. (See pictures of the recent floods in Georgia.)

Jain of the ADB says the leadership in Manila, faced with elections in the coming months, is indeed thinking of long-term solutions to its infrastructure woes. Plans have been afoot to improve sanitation and also relieve the population burden in metro Manila by shifting certain businesses and government offices to areas outside the dense capital region. But the challenge facing the Philippines and other poor Asian countries is one of resources. Most Southeast Asia nations budget around 2% or 3% of their GDP for infrastructure development. To fend off such disasters in the future, Jain says that figure ought to be closer to 5% or 6%. It’s a deficit that few governments can afford to make up overnight.

But given the looming specter of climate change, they may have to find a way sooner rather than later. The prospect of another typhoon this week underscores environmentalists’ concern that shifts in global temperatures may mean increasingly extreme weather patterns for coastal cities like Manila. “[Ketsana] was a startling, unique event,” says Herminia Francisco of the EEPSA in Singapore. “But then I think this is going to happen more and more frequently in the future.” (See a TIME graphic on destructive weather.)

For today, as international aid pours in from organizations like the Red Cross and the World Food Program, Manila residents are slowly retrieving their homes and livelihoods from the mud. Thousands of volunteers have donated food and rushed to help those who were worse affected. “Filipinos are used to crisis,” says Celdran. “We’ve gone through a lot over the years, but we’ve managed. We’re a resilient people.”

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Ondoy Aftermath

Fidelis Tan

As Ondoy exits, Pepeng enters. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) spotted typhoon Pepeng (international name Parma) 650 kms East of Borongan, Eastern Samar early Thursday morning.

Storm signal no. 1 was raised in Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur and Catanduanes.

Pepeng packs stronger winds than Ondoy, reaching up to 150 kilometers per hour near the center and with gustiness of up to 185 kph. The typhoon is currently moving West Northwest at 24 kph.

According to PAGASA, “residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes under signal #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.”

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